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Moscow has also threatened a military response if Sweden or Finland decides to join NATO; according to NATO’s secretary-general, Russian exercises have included simulated nuclear strikes against Sweden.

Reported changes in the Russian military doctrine suggest that the Kremlin plans on the first use of nuclear weapons in the early stages of a conflict with NATO (known as “escalate to de-escalate”) to prevent escalation to a larger-scale conventional war that Moscow believes NATO would ultimately win.

Moreover, NATO has every reason to be concerned about Russia’s ongoing quantitative and qualitative improvements in military forces opposite the alliance’s eastern flank, its violations of the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty, and its effective withdrawal from the Conventional Armed Forces in Europe Treaty (both treaties are long considered bedrocks of European stability and security).

In response to these troubling developments, the United States and NATO have launched several initiatives to improve their deterrence and defense posture in the east and to reassure the Baltic states and Poland of the alliance’s Article 5 commitment.

S.-led campaign in the Balkans in the 1990s, the U.

Specifically, Russian officials have argued that the U.In the summer of 2015, the outgoing chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, U. General Martin Dempsey, and his successor, General Joseph Dunford, both described Russia as the greatest threat to U. Russian forces have staged unannounced (“snap”) exercises simulating the use of nuclear weapons in an invasion of the Baltic region.The Russian military has deployed additional missile and air defense assets and, most recently, nuclear-capable Iskander missiles to Kaliningrad.But the Kremlin has repeatedly demonstrated a will to act contrary to most Western assessments of those capabilities and at great cost to Russian interests as they are understood in the West.A sober understanding of those capabilities is essential to understanding drivers of Russian actions and crafting an appropriate Western response.

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